prev  |  index  |  next

The MURE scenarios are built and run on the basis of sets of assumptions concerning mainly two types of variables:

• the energy performance of technologies
• the expected penetration rates of energy efficient technologies (see Figure 1)
  

Fig. 1

MURE is therefore a bottom-up, technology-related simulation tool, allowing to:

• choose the end-use sector for the simulation (household or transport or industry or tertiary)

• identify and select the scope of the interventions (or policies) that one wants to simulate, for instance, deciding to look only at building insulation, or at boilers efficiency, etc., or at whatever combination of those

• describe the interventions in detail. This means, for instance, deciding that, within the end of the period analysed in the scenario, the entire stock of newly installed appliances will belong to a given labelling Class, or, for what industrial boilers are concerned, that the EU relevant Directives will be fully enforced, etc. This can be done in a more or less detailed and elaborated way: for instance, for what concerns retrofitting interventions on the insulation of existing buildings (see Figure 2), one may enter into such details as the selection of the insulation material for each building component, the thickness of the layer of insulating material, etc.

• make assumptions on the future performance of the technologies (or devices, etc.) involved by the interventions that one has selected. In principle, all such values are already in the MURE database, and, when preparing the scenario, one may simply validate the proposed values, such as, for instance, the reference efficiency of a given class of appliances, or the expected efficiency gains to be expected from the introduction of variable speed motors, etc. However, one may, at this stage, introduce his/her own assumptions concerning this or that technology, if the default values suggested by the database are deemed unrealistic (this could happen, for instance, for the target value proposed by MURE for the average efficiency of future gas boilers, or of solar water heating systems, etc.)

• make assumptions on the future penetration rates that can be expected for each of the envisaged technologies. This means deciding on which share of the total stock (of appliances, of buildings, of boilers, etc.), the previously described intervention will be actually carried out. This may be quite simple for such interventions as the application of the building codes, for which the most obvious thing to do is use a 100 % share applied to new construction, i.e. all new buildings will conform to the codes. It can be much trickier for other interventions, such as the introduction of advanced industrial production processes, for which the expected rate of penetration clearly depends on the nature of the incentives, if any, and, generally speaking, on a number of behavioural aspects which are not explicitly described in MURE. In such cases, the experience of the analyst defining the scenario is clearly crucial if realistic assumptions must be made

• at this point, MURE runs the calculations, through a sequential process which is thoroughly described both in the manuals and in the actual interactive simulation process, and produces results in terms of technical energy savings potential corresponding to the entire (and cumulated) set of interventions that one has selected. The results are automatically compared to the so-called reference scenario (see Figures 3 and 4). This is meant to be the typical "business as usual" scenario, where reference consumptions, and the evolution of the existing stocks, are roughly extrapolated based on the start-year values as well as on some basic assumptions on variables such as the expected net growth of the number of buildings (there is however some degree of freedom which is left to the user for what concerns the definition of the reference scenario).

Fig. 2: Simulation of insulation intervention in individual houses

Fig 3: Penetration of the building stock with energy efficient technologies

Fig 4: Results screen

In conclusion, as explained above, MURE looks at the impact on energy consumptions of technology related assumptions, mainly dealing with issues such as:

• How efficient future technologies will be?

• How effective energy policies will be in promoting efficient technologies?

• How much energy can be saved, and pollutant emission reduced, if the assumptions made on the two previous issues are realistic?

The basic simulation logic is the same for all end-use sectors; there are however some important differences from one sector to another.

For instance, as far as industry and tertiary are concerned, the assumptions on future penetration rates of energy efficient technologies are facilitated through proposed values, which correspond to the so-called "maximum penetration rates" (i.e.: considering the current structure of industry, and the very nature of the processes, what is the limit beyond which it is deemed unfeasible to introduce new and more efficient technologies?). These values, which are made available by the MURE database and which the analyst can visualise while proceeding with the simulation, are drawn from sectoral studies available at the national and European level.

In the following sections, two examples of RUE scenarios are presented, together with the corresponding results obtained through MURE simulation.